Fitch Ratings has lowered its GDP growth projections for India amid the US-Israeli war against Iran. The credit rating agency estimates that the ongoing conflict will slow the economy in the September and December quarters. Fitch also projected 6.4% growth in the current fiscal — down from an earlier estimate of 6.7% in its June Global Economic Outlook.

“We expect GDP growth to ease to 6.4% in FY27, a downward revision of 0.3pp from March. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth, but lower imports in real terms imply positive contributions to growth from net external demand,” Fitch Ratings wrote.

The estimates came even as the Reserve Bank of India cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.6% and upped its inflation projection to 5.1%. Fitch has also lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4% as an extended oil crisis hurts prospects.